A Tale of Two Economies 

What can we learn from Nigeria’s economic decline and South Africa’s relative economic stability? 

Nigeria and South Africa have long been regarded as the powerhouses of Africa’s economy. Both nations possess abundant natural resources, significant populations, and strong geopolitical influence. The competition between these countries extends beyond just numbers; it represents a broader struggle for influence, development and leadership within Africa.

In 2014, Nigeria rebased its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures and claimed the title of Africa’s largest economy. The rebasing involved revising the country’s base year for GDP calculations from 1990 to 2010. This meant that before 2014, Nigeria’s GDP excluded new sectors and their contribution to the economy. Some of such sectors include telecommunications, information and communication technology, real estate, music, film and e-commerce. The rebasing resulted in a retrospective application to the country’s 2013 GDP figures, taking it from $270 billion to $510 billion surpassing South Africa’s $370 billion at the end of 2013. However, recent years have seen Nigeria’s economic growth falter, leading to significant concerns about the underlying causes and prospects of its economy. Based on the IMF’s World Economic Outlook for 2024, Nigeria’s GDP is estimated at $253 billion, falling behind Algeria’s at $267 billion, Egypt’s at $348 billion, and South Africa’s at $373 billion...