In the weeks leading up to the death of Buhari, a series of events took place that perhaps would not have bothered Tinubu if his predecessor had not passed away. Former governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai, announced his exit from the ruling party after he had lost out on the opportunity of becoming a minister in the Tinubu administration. Shortly after leaving the party, El-Rufai announced on social media that he had left the All Progressives Congress (APC) after consultation with Buhari, whom he claimed had given his consent. Shortly after, the former president, through his spokesperson, Garba Shehu, reaffirmed his commitment to APC. ‘I am an APC member and I like to be addressed as such,’ he had said. ‘I will try to popularize the party by all means.’ Buhari’s statement was not just an endorsement of his party but, by extension, the current party leader, Tinubu. It was also a vote of confidence that removed any doubt about Buhari’s political allegiance after leaving office. There was no doubt that, come 2027, Buhari would be willing to lead the re-election campaign of his successor, especially in northern Nigeria, where he had built a larger-than-life political profile.

Some members of what is supposed to be the main opposition party in Nigeria, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), came to the realization that at the half-year point of Tinubu’s presidency, they needed to make strategic moves if they stood any chance of defeating Tinubu in 2027. The party had struggled to put its house in order as internal crises rendered it weak. Former governor of Rivers State and current minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, has pitched his tent with the ruling party despite being a member of PDP.  Two PDP governors in the south, Sheriff Oborevwori and Umo Eno of Delta and Akwa Ibom states, respectively, defected to APC in 2025, while several lawmakers have followed suit, thereby strengthening APC’s chances ahead of the next general elections.

To address their political future, former vice president and serial presidential aspirant, Atiku Abubakar, convened key members of opposition parties and disgruntled members of APC, notably El-Rufai; former Anambra State governor and presidential aspirant, Peter Obi; former governor of Osun State and one-time ally of Tinubu, Rauf Aregbesola; former Senate president, David Mark and former governor of Rivers, Rotimi Amaechi to form a coalition, a move similar to what gave birth to APC in 2013. While APC was an amalgamation of existing opposition parties, Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), Action Congress of Nigeria and the All Nigeria Peoples Party, the new coalition either expressed support for the new platform but remained in their party or left their parties to join the already existing African Democratic Congress (ADC).

Tinubu did not seem to care about the machinations of the opposition as he continued to make strong political inroads. On the back of Buhari, he seemed to have the key northern states on lockdown and the support of members of CPC bloc who formed APC. For example, when it was rumoured that former minister of aviation, Hadi Sirika, had left APC for ADC, he denied this, adding that he ‘will always be where President Buhari is.’

President Tinubu was also gaining support in the North Central, with policies that clearly identified issues affecting the region. While former leaders went with the narrative of ‘one north’, Tinubu clearly recognized and courted the support of the distinct North Central region. For example, he approved the establishment of a Federal University in Southern Kaduna, a move that raised his profile in a region that has claimed to be marginalized by the Hausa-Fulani dominated group. Tinubu’s visit to Benue State following a bloody attack was applauded, as Buhari never went to the state despite the numerous bandit attacks that occurred in the state during his eight-year presidency.

With Tinubu’s political stock rising, he probably has started planning who his 2031 successor would be and how to make sure his political influence will not diminish after he leaves office. With Buhari’s passing, however, Tinubu is now in a position where his chances of being re-elected are beginning to diminish.