Lost your password?

Will Africa See More Protests In 2025?

AfricaFebruary/March 2025
Protests

Collage by Dami Mojid / THE REPUBLIC.

THE MINISTRY OF POLITICAL AFFAIRS

Will Africa See More Protests In 2025?

The African continent was rife with different protests in 2024. With many of the triggers that caused the protests not attended to, 2025 may see these protests skyrocket.
Protests

Collage by Dami Mojid / THE REPUBLIC.

THE MINISTRY OF POLITICAL AFFAIRS

Will Africa See More Protests In 2025?

The African continent was rife with different protests in 2024. With many of the triggers that caused the protests not attended to, 2025 may see these protests skyrocket.

2024 was a year of protests in Africa. Citizens across many countries took to the streets to express frustration at their unyielding situations. From Maputo to Lagos to Accra to Nairobi, people-led protests and uprisings stung the government, and in some cases, taking security forces by surprise. The protestors remained defiant as they asked that their demands be met.

The governments had it coming, though, as most countries experienced deteriorating economic challenges, mismanagement of public funds, extended office tenures, and a nonchalant approach to public issues for example Ghana’s GDP decelerated from 3.8 per cent in 2022 to 2.9 per cent in 2023. The demonstrations persisted for weeks, in some cases through online platforms and on the streets. Despite executing harsh crackdown and victimization methods such as in Nigeria where the police used excessive violence to quash #EndbadGovernance protests, the voices of these protesters only resounded with renewed vigour, some even drawing motivation from the other (Ugandans were inspired by Kenyan protestors), prompting observers and commentators such as Tafi Mhaka to wonder if an ‘African Spring’ was in the making.

Civil societies, citizens and opposition leaders led the helm, as hashtags like #FixTheCountry in Ghana, #SayNoToBadGovernance in Nigeria, #OccupyParliament in Kenya and #RestoreSubsidy in Nigeria trended on the airwaves, social media and on the streets via placards. The authorities in many cases tried to censor the movements by slowing or jamming the networks or even totally shutting down access to the internet. For example in Mozambique the three telecommunication companies cut internet connection for weeks to crackdown on dissent, hurting small businesses.

Government responses were predictable too as they looked into the old rule book of repression to quash the protest efforts through brawn and boots. Mozambique and Kenya arguably saw the worst of it with protestors repeatedly beaten, jailed, killed and even abducted after the protests.

DISCONTENT WITH THE STATUS QUO

While the issues in each country and the factors behind these demonstrations vary, it is clear that the matter at heart is not dissimilar. The uniting point is the strife for a better country, which will be accelerated by the realization of an inflection point in the way states and societies across the African continent relate and interact.

Afolabi Adekaiyaoja, a political analyst believes that many citizens have felt disillusioned in the wake of rising economic costs, growing socio-political division and increasing marginalization across different economic classes. He said: ‘This has fuelled “populist” and “insurgent” candidacies seeking to redistribute power and access to state resources, but prior to these political impacts, they have seen citizens take to the streets to demand immediate restitution.’ A common factor amongst these demonstrations was the growing discontent amongst the significantly larger youth population—70 per cent of Africans are under the age of 30—who are battling poverty and decreasing job opportunities. It becomes important to take their future in their hands, out of the grasp of corrupt leadership. This corrupt leadership has been globally recognized. Nigerian President Bola Tinubu and Kenyan President William Ruto, leaders of two countries where demonstrations occurred, ranked first and third in the 2024 Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting top five persons in organized crime and corruption. These leaders and their officials were accused of insensitivity due to indulgence in ostentatious displays of wealth while voters led a hardscrabble life. Kirna Kataria, West Africa lead security analyst at International SOS, a London-based risk management firm said: ‘Young people, particularly those active on social media, played a significant role in organizing and leading protests. This was evident in Kenya, where young people mobilized against economic grievances and government corruption.’

In June 2024, Kenyans took to the street under the #RejectFinanceBill2024 banner to push back against a new bill that sought to slap a tax hike on goods and services in the East African country, including a 16 per cent value-added tax on bread and financial services, and a new 2.5 per cent annual tax on cars, amongst others. This was too much for Kenyans who pay more than 30 per cent of their income as taxes. They demanded that #Rutomustgo until he eventually withdrew the bill and fired some of his ministers.

Shortly after the start of Kenyan protests, Ugandans took a leaf in July and started clamouring for the end of corruption in the country that has been ruled by President Yoweri Museveni for the last 39 years. He has maintained a hold on the presidential seat through patronage, repression of protests over the years victimization of his opponents and corruption, with the country placed as the 40th most corrupt in the world.

In Nigeria, the removal of the fuel subsidy and currency devaluations led to soaring inflation and the toughest hardship experienced in nearly three decades, prompting widespread protests. Although the policies were made in 2023, a protest did not break out until the situation had reached a head. Allegations of corruption and poor governance were common themes, as seen in Ghana, where dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the economic crisis and perceived corruption—including illegal and environmentally harmful mining—sparked protests.

In Mozambique, protests sprung from disputed election results and broader socio-economic discontent. Opposition figure, Venancio Mondlane, led the protests that called for the fall of Front for the Liberation of Mozambique, the incumbent party that has governed the country since its independence from Portugal in 1975. The protests in Senegal were also motivated by electoral circumstances. After former President Macky Sall sought to delay the 2024 elections by ten months, youths thronged the streets, forcing Sall to reverse his action. Bassirou Diomaye Faye, Africa’s youngest president, would emerge as the winner of the election.

shop the republic

shop the republic

VARYING SUCCESS

Many experts have expressed that the effectiveness and success of the protests varied. While some achieved partial success, others were stuck in the face of significant challenges which often fell short of the protesters’ core demands. ‘In Nigeria, the government’s response included some conciliatory gestures, such as increasing the minimum wage and distributing rice to each state. However, these measures did not satisfy the protesters, as they did not address their primary demands, such as the reinstatement of the fuel subsidy,’ Kirna said.

Government efforts to discredit the merits of the protests also played a part such as labelling it as a political move to destabilize the country as seen in Nigeria where the government said protests are politically motivated. It also did not help that the demands were not comprehensive. Heavy government crackdown leading to arrests—and a later prosecution of minors—watered down the movement. According to Kirna:

In Kenya, the protests were partly effective, as the Finance Bill 2024—which sparked the initial protests—was withdrawn. However, this did not fully satisfy the protesters, as they remained broadly displeased with the existing high taxes. They also demanded the president’s resignation and accountability for casualties during the protests and ongoing disappearances and arrests.

In Mozambique, the protests fell short of achieving its primary goal of overturning the election results and having opposition leader Venancio Mondlane declared winner. Instead, the protests and strikes brought about economic disruption, border closure, power outages and loss of life.

Adekaiyaoja said protests are determined by the discipline of the organizers to rally around a single operating demand and to stick to it, adding that the protests rather than performing their primary functions, have also solely morphed into much more than political tools. He said: ‘They give citizens an opportunity to vent, but they also provide politicians with an opportunity to turn this anger into a political game—the opposition tries to paint the ruling party as insensitive, while the ruling party brands it as a strictly opposition avenue.’

Experts say the result, in societies that are often divided along political and cultural lines, is often that protests are not seen as citizens speaking out but simply as an attempt to cause a change in power. Citizens rarely feel that substantial changes have been made, especially when the request is vague and nebulous and without measured milestones or achievable results. ‘Organizers of these protests, often painted as disgruntled opposition politicians, bear the responsibility of charting a course forward,’ Adekaiyaoja said, ‘But we seldom agree. This means that community organizers, civil society and opposition politicians are at odds on how to go forward.’

But protests are important as they speak truth to power and hold governments accountable while calling attention to spiralling challenges before they go beyond the point of repair. These protests, too, do not end on the streets—as the anger is transmuting and being felt through the result of votes. This is seen in the situation of Senegal and Ghana where protests ultimately led to changes in government.

shop the republic

shop the republic

MORE PROTESTS?

Experts argue that the unresolved and growing discontent amongst the citizenry in countries will lead to more protests on the continent going into the new year, but the extent is dependent on the intensity and the shape of government in each country. Socioeconomic situations have remained the same and worsening in some cases. The governments have also not taken any recognizably convincing steps to arrest the burning issues the people are facing, which leads to a continued crisis of confidence in government activities. According to International SOS’s 2025 Risk Outlook survey results, African respondents identified the top three perceived risks to be: the impact of the cost of living (89 per cent), stress and burnout (84 per cent) and political stress or anxiety (76 per cent).

Nathaniel Powell, West Africa analyst for Oxford Analytica told me that incoming governments in some countries will sate anger or propensity for demonstrations saying that although many Senegalese are still experiencing extreme deprivation, the arrival of a new popular reformist government will likely mean major protests are unlikely in the short term as people wait and see if it manages to tackle some of the country’s deep-seated problems. And it is the same for Ghana—even if the John Mahama government is not so radical or reformist.

Adekaiyaoja agrees, although he argues that the mandate of the new governments in Senegal and Ghana is less theirs and more opposition to the incumbent:

We will see how popular Senegal’s new government is after a year of controlling both the executive and legislature will deprive it of any excuse to make. Ghana will also see a new government in place, with a resounding mandate and lofty ambitions. Cote d’Ivoire will see keenly contested elections amidst concerns of Ouattara seeking another term in office. And an uncertain economic and political landscape will see questions asked of governments, whose inability or refusal to answer will no doubt spark outrage and protests.

In the absence of significant conciliatory gestures from the government in Nigeria where food inflation is almost 40 per cent, anti-government sentiment is likely to grow, leading to more frequent bouts of unrest, said Kirna. She added that although regular large-scale and coordinated demonstrations are not expected, smaller, spontaneous protests could erupt, potentially disrupting major routes and highways.

Likewise in Kenya, Kirna anticipates more protests over existing issues which she says would be smaller in tempo and scale than at the peak of the 2024 protests. This is due to better government preparation, threats of violence against demonstrators, and a sense of hopelessness driving people to focus on the 2027 general election. She said:

In Mozambique, election-related protests are expected to gradually decrease since Chapo has been inaugurated. A rift within Mondlane’s opposition pact and growing protest fatigue are likely to reduce support and momentum for the protests. Mondlane’s scheduled talks with the government could also lead to a deal, further diminishing the protests.

shop the republic

shop the republic

‘INCREASINGLY MINDFUL GOVERNMENT’

Aside from the countries which experienced protests in 2024, other less popular governments such as those in Guinea, Cameroon or Angola certainly have all the ingredients to feed potentially major protests, but the repressive nature of their governments might deter major demonstrations. Oxford Analytica’s Powell said:

Alternatively, repressive measures could provoke protests, potentially threatening government longevity, although these are rare occurrences, maybe Mozambique comes close, or the Senegalese example from early 2024. The juntas in the Sahel states appear to remain reasonably popular, although this may dissipate over time as insecurity worsens, but protests there are likely to be met with significant repression.

He added that Guinea-Bissau may see a major political crisis over the question of elections. In 2024, the country’s president indefinitely postponed elections due to a lack of finance to fund the electoral preparations, but the opposition is wary of the decision after previously dissolving parliament in December 2023 as a reaction to armed clashes he described as an attempted coup.

Adekaiyaoja believes that the middle class and its increasing shrinking status will play a chiefly determinant role in why we are likely to see more protests and disruptive arguments. ‘Governments appear to be increasingly mindful of this anger, especially groups that are coming to power on the back of opposition victories, so there is hope that they are aware of the promise they have to deliver on,’ he said.

However, the posture of some of these governments has hardly changed and this may not bode well in the long term—Uganda has jailed opposition leader Kizza Besigye, who ran and lost four elections against Yoweri Museveni, despite a Supreme Court ruling for his release, running the risk of a public call for his freedom.

President Donald Trump of the United States recently cut critical aid projects some of which support healthcare, education, agriculture and social services, which may expose the lapse in social welfare competence of the governments and aggravate existing anger if not restored. The governments in Africa must now also be proactive in their actions henceforth. These are fragile times and knowing those who lead most governments on the continent, someone is bound to make a move that will draw the people back on the streets. What we don’t know is how long it will take⎈

BUY THE MAGAZINE AND/OR THE COVER