Can Nigeria’s Centre Hold?

With the establishment of regional commissions, is Nigeria inching close to true federalism or witnessing the failure of the current governance system?

Last year’s change of the National Anthem is not the only attempt by the current government that’s a throwback to Nigeria’s First Republic (1960–1966). For some time now, there has been tacit acknowledgement that present governance structures are not fit for purpose, leading to the scrambling for a change in approach by the current administration. First, there is the July 2024 Supreme Court ruling that ensured the federal government could bypass state governments and pay funds directly to local government councils. This ruling could shake up state affairs and challenge the firm grip state governors have historically had in their respective regions. Second, the ongoing debate on restructuring the value-added tax system might weaken the advantage that more populous states have had, leading to opposition by some state governors. Policies like the ones mentioned can change how Nigerians interact with their leaders since local government chairs will have little excuse for not executing policies and state governments will be forced to move beyond relying on these federal allocations. 

However, a third point: the increasing acknowledgment of regional coordination in driving development is the end product of a process that started under the Umaru Musa Yar’Adua administration (2007–2010). It might be the solution for Nigeria’s unwieldy states. Nigeria has made considerable effort to get regionalism back on the table. During President Bola Tinubu’s cabinet reshuffle in October 2024, he dissolved the Ministry of Niger Delta Development and created the Ministry of Regional Development. This ministry is charged with managing the regional development commissions established, and awaiting presidential assent, at the federal level. But as these commissions take flight, there is the question of how these different levels of management and representation fit into Nigeria’s elaborate and labyrinthine governance architecture. It leads to a wider question: is the country’s manner of governance effective and fit for purpose...

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