Green Future or Black Gold? Is Nigeria’s Economic Future Still in Oil?

Amid internal challenges, the promise of a new Dangote Refinery and the world’s shift towards renewable energy, Nigeria (Africa’s largest holder of proven oil reserves) grapples with the pivotal question of whether to continue its allegiance to OPEC or chart an independent course in the labyrinthine world of oil geopolitics.

As Africa’s largest holder of proven oil reserves and one of the top 15 global oil producers, Nigeria’s oil industry towers over its economy. The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) Limited, the state-owned behemoth, presides over an industry churning out over 1.5 million barrels per day from approximately 37 billion barrels of reserves. These treasure troves of black gold, concentrated mainly in the Niger Delta, accounts for nine per cent of Nigeria’s GDP and for almost 90 per cent of all export value. However, the oil wealth is a double-edged sword. Vandalism of infrastructure, deep-seated corruption, rampant oil theft, and the ecological desecration of the Niger Delta continue to siphon off potential gains, casting a shadow over the country’s economic narrative. Sensing the unsustainable dynamics of this black gold dependency and the world's accelerating pivot towards renewable energy, Nigeria’s government has attempted to diversify its economic structure. Yet, the towering presence of oil continues to shape the country’s economic landscape as of 2023...

 

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