Tinubu and West Africa’s Growing Coup Belt

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election as ECOWAS chairman shines light on his first geo-political test which is the handling of the recent coups in West Africa, a situation that can make or mar Nigeria’s foreign policy record.

In early August 2023, people on the streets of Niger staged protests against Nigeria’s leader, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. The protesters bore placards that carried the phrase ‘Ebola Tinubu’. It was a reaction to the Nigerian president’s response to a coup that had been successfully staged in the previous month. Niger was the latest country to join a three-year resurgence of coups in the Sahel, and subsequently pulled out of the regional body, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

Nigeria responded with various measures including, cutting the power supply to the country as well as the threat of military intervention. Support for the latter was weak in both Nigeria and Niger. Almost a year since the coup was staged, Niger remains under military rule. How did external perceptions about President Tinubu’s rise to power affect Nigeria’s ability to respond to the overthrowing of democracy in a neighbouring state that it has had a long and influential relationship with? What can we expect from President Tinubu as leader of the most powerful country in West Africa and ECOWAS’s current chairman? What does the future look like for democracy in a region where other countries not under military rule are characterized by the same challenges that contributed to coups in the region...