Can Africa’s Coup Problem be solved? Why Africa’s Coups Appear Unending

The recurrence of military coups d’état in Africa is the result of the continent's clear structural fragilities and has no easy solutions. The fragilities may even culminate in a more generalized crisis that precipitates a more widespread coup contagion. 

Since 1950, Africa has had the world’s highest number of military coups and second highest coup success rate at 52 per cent after Asia. Between 1950 and 2010, the continent experienced 169 coups, followed closely by 145 coups in the Americas and distantly matched by 72 in the Middle East, 59 in Asia and 12 in Europe. Within Africa itself, West Africa has experienced the greatest share of successful coups and coup attempts, accounting for 85 (45 per cent) of the 188 coup attempts between 1956 and the end of 2001 on the continent. As a result, until the 2000s, the most common way for a national ruler to lose power in West Africa was to be overthrown or killed in a coup attempt or civil war, representing 52.8 per cent of all transitions.  

Military rule in many cases not only fosters repression of civil and political rights but tends to have narrower ‘social foundations’ than democratic rule—i.e. compared to democratic rule where a greater share of the population may be co-opted through patronage, infrastructure and job creation, military rulers’ repressive capabilities lead to a lower preference for co-optation over repression. Some may argue that they would accept the bargain of repressed civil and political rights for economic development fostered under military rule...