What Really Shaped the 2024 Edo Governorship Election?​

APC’s Monday Okpebholo has been declared governor-elect following the recently concluded Edo governorship election. What factors contributed to his victory? 

On 22 September 2024, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared Monday Okpebholo, the nominee of the All Progressives Congress (APC) as the winner of the Edo 2024 governorship election. It is the fourth off-cycle governorship election under the Bola Ahmed Tinubu presidency, and represents the first gain of his party, APC, following defeat in Bayelsa, and retaining Imo and Kogi in the 2023 off-cycle elections. The election was originally billed as a three-horse race between Okpebholo, a sitting senator; Asue Ighodalo, a renowned lawyer and boardroom guru who was the choice of the outgoing governor and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP); and Olumide Akpata, former president of the Nigerian Bar Association and nominee of Labour Party (LP). The three parties had recently performed strongly in recent Edo elections—APC had the majority of the national assembly delegation after the 2023 general elections, PDP had control of the state house of assembly and LP had won the presidential vote in 2023 through Peter Obi. Analysts thought an enlightened electorate, disillusionment at both state and federal incumbent parties and a general sense of angst concerning socio-economic challenges would make the Edo State governorship election a fairly competitive race.  

But in the end, it was really down to the two establishment parties, APC and PDP, further echoing the distant showing that third-party candidates fared in Bayelsa and Imo states; and showing the primacy of individuals over parties as seen in Murtala Ajaka’s strong showing for the Social Democratic Party in Kogi. As the dust settles, and expected litigation briefs are filed, it is worth looking at who actually won and lost in Edo and what this portends for Nigeria’s political landscape...

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