Illustration by Sarah N. Kanu / THE REPUBLIC.
THE MINISTRY OF WORLD AFFAIRS
African Cooperation in the Age of Anti-Globalization
Illustration by Sarah N. Kanu / THE REPUBLIC.
THE MINISTRY OF WORLD AFFAIRS
African Cooperation in the Age of Anti-Globalization
The world is experiencing another wave of turbulence. The election of Donald Trump as president of the United States for a second time has ushered in populist, anti-establishment and anti-globalization reforms in the United States. Major examples include America’s increase in import tariffs, its exit from the World Health Organization and the roll back of US bilateral assistance to nations through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The impact of these on many health, education and development programmes in Africa is likely to be significant. Africa may also suffer collateral damage from the US–China trade war.
These pressures give reason to take more seriously Africa’s vision for a strengthened position in the international hierarchy of economic power. To better understand where opportunities for continental strengthening lay, it is important to be aware of Africa’s past experience under various global orders— (2008 till present)—and under both past globalization and anti-globalization.
AFRICA SINCE THE NINETEENTH CENTURY
Western internationalization did not begin as a twentieth-century phenomenon. While the first wave of globalization began in the 1870s, the foundations of the modern global economy were laid in the 1500s. At this time, Africa was being incorporated into the global economy mainly as a source of slave labour. By the 1780s to the 1800s, when the First Industrial Revolution gained steam and abolitionist movements gained success, several visions for strengthening the position of Africans in the global economy emerged.
Paul Cuffe, America’s ‘first wealthy negro’, envisioned Sierra Leone as the basis for Black-led commercial ventures that would help uplift Black people economically in both Africa and the Americas. Dr Martin R. Delany, described as ‘America’s first Black Nationalist’, envisioned Lagos as being the great metropolis of this quarter of the world and dreamed of a trans-continental African railway running from the East African coast to the West African coast, which would integrate Africa with the trade of the West Indies and North America. Hillary Teague (former Secretary of State of Liberia) and Edward Blyden (pan-African thinker and writer) looked forward to a United States of Africa or West African empire centred on Liberia. The Gold Coast (Ghanaian) lawyer, Casely Hayford, argued for an Imperial West Africa. However, these pan-African visions were only held by elites in the few coastal settlements, and many held derogatory views of interior populations. Moreover, contact between these coastal settlements and interior territories was limited.
On the other hand, in this century, as Yekutiel Gershoni, a professor of Middle Eastern and African History, notes, there was ‘not one Muslim thinker or spokesman who envisioned a “modern trans-tribal West African nation.”’ In fact, some coastal West African elites and merchants welcomed Western colonial encroachment. Relations between north, south, east and west of the continent ranged from thin to non-existent. Even Ethiopia, where Emperor Tewodros II rose to power in 1855 to unify the country, looked to Europe to seek partnership in building his state. North Africa was already under pressure from European machinations, and the political approach to their southern neighbours tended to be either ambivalent or aggressive. For instance, Yusuf Pasha Karamanli of Libya sought to invade the Bornu Empire, while Muhammad Ali Pasha of Egypt invaded Sudan.
These all occurred under a multipolar but aggressively expansionary world order. Participation at the 1815 Congress of Vienna, which set the stage for the Concert of Europe, was limited to ‘great powers’, and, as economic historian Patrick O’Brien notes, it established ‘mutual recognition of existing empires and spheres of influence in Asia, Africa and the Americas.’ When Western multipolarity and the aggressive component of first-wave globalization culminated in the Scramble for Africa, the continent was not in a position to forge closer partnerships for withstanding the barrage of colonial encroachment.
The anti-globalization trend that began in 1914 and continued during the inter-war period allowed only some independent or semi-autonomous African countries to pursue industrial development, chief of which was South Africa from 1924. Most African countries were under colonial rule at the time. Moreover, these African colonial territories largely remained secluded, save for the interaction of elites in Dakar, France and Britain for education and a relatively small number of coastal elites involved in institutions like the National Congress of British West Africa. In the late colonial period, when contact among African elites became more visible, the continent became divided horizontally (between elites who wanted immediate political unification and those who did not, referred to as the Casablanca and Monrovia blocs, respectively) and vertically (between Africans who had achieved independence and those who had not).
The first president of Ghana, Kwame Nkrumah, warned that Africa’s position in the global economic order was marginal and precarious, and only by federating could the continent improve its bargaining power relative to global capital, as well as improve the size of its internal market to make industrialization more viable. The few efforts to coalesce into larger nations failed (including the Mali Federation between Senegal and Mali and the Senegambia Confederation between Senegal and Gambia). Yet the lure of commodity export rents, the aspiration of achieving industrial development independently and the erroneous gamble that under a bipolar world order where the US and the Soviet Union could be played off each other, permitted African elites to pursue development independently and to gain legitimacy for this strategy by observing the results of Africa achieving some economic growth in absolute terms.
However, in the absence of deeper African integration, countries struggled to advance their economic positions and improve their bargaining power in relation to foreign direct investors, aid agencies and foreign diplomats. In fact, intra-African trade and the share of manufactured goods in this trade declined from 7 per cent in 1955 to 4.3 per cent in 1977 and from 26 per cent in 1955 to 18.3 per cent in 1976, respectively. The demands for a New International Economic Order, made by developing countries under the auspices of the United Nations, were not operationalized or successful. Moreover, while South Africa was the first African country to achieve sustained industrial growth (starting in 1924) and had the largest manufacturing share of national output by 1960, it remained under Afrikaner minority rule until 1994. Therefore, despite having closer intra-African relations than in the nineteenth century and greater political independence than in the first half of the twentieth century, horizontal and vertical cleavages undermined African unity.
By the time the debt and macroeconomic crises of the Global South hit in the 1980s and 1990s, despite an initial attempt to envision a continental developmental response through the 1980 Lagos Plan of Action for the Economic Development of Africa, each country ultimately dealt with its problems by itself.
SURVIVORS OF AGGRESSIVE GLOBALIZATION
There are three major routes to advancing a nation’s economic position in the world order, along with a fourth ancillary route. The first is independent development, which is viable for countries that face significant external pressures and threats and have a domestic distribution of power that enables developmental states to form (such as Brazil in South America and the US in North America). This was largely the case for the late industrializers (the US, Germany, and Japan by the late 1800s), subsequent ones such as Brazil, and stable oil exporters such as Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. The largest states (in population and land area) among these tend to become regional powers (such as China and the US).
The second route is to combine domestic developmental states with aggressive or expansionary development (including blocking other countries from industrializing), which complements domestic growth with external expansion. Imperial Japan is an example of this in East Asia, as it quickly became an imperial power, invading Korea and seeking hegemony in East Asia. Many European empires, including Britain and France, since the 1500s, also took this route. The third route is to combine domestic developmental states with significant external developmental assistance. This is the route that most of the East Asian Tigers (South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Honk Kong) took (as well as post-war Japan and Israel), based on aid and import promotion given by the United States as part of its efforts to contain the expansion of communism in East Asia or to ensure a stable democratic ally in the Middle East (in Israel’s case, as the largest recipient of American foreign aid since the Second World War).
Among the countries that took the first two routes, some were only viable because smaller polities coalesced into larger ones (which forms the ancillary fourth route)—the US as an amalgamation of 13 British American colonies in the late eighteenth century, while the German states and the Italian states each unified in the mid-nineteenth century. Other attempts at unification often failed to last, as with Gran Colombia (1821–1830) in South America and the Central American Federation (1823–1842). The League of Armed Neutrality was the most significant effort by nations within the global semi-periphery (Russia, Denmark and Sweden, Prussia, Austria, Portugal and the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies) to forge an alliance; but this was aimed at reducing the impact of European warfare on trade, rather than the positive purpose of growing their joint economic power. For some (such as Portugal and Naples), however, the league ‘signalled a way out of a balance of power where they were forced to play the role of an economic auxiliary.’ The Ottoman Empire tried, from the late nineteenth century, to forge pan-Islamist connections with Muslim polities across Asia and Africa but was ultimately defeated by European powers and reduced to the single nation of Turkey.
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In light of these pathways, Africa has been unfortunate. In terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, the wealthiest African countries (Seychelles and Mauritius) are small and are less wealthy than the wealthiest countries of Latin America (Panama, Uruguay and Chile), the Caribbean (Guyana, Bahamas and Trinidad and Tobago), south-west Asia (Qatar, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia), south-east Asia (Brunei and Malaysia), central Asia (Kazakhstan) and south-eastern Europe (Romania and Croatia). The wealthiest large African country (Egypt) ranks 92nd in GDP per capita globally, while the other nine largest African countries (Nigeria, Ethiopia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Tanzania, South Africa, Kenya, Sudan, Uganda and Algeria) continuously struggle to create developmental states. Therefore, although, as middle powers, they may have some influence in global affairs, the route of independent ascendancy up the ladder of global power is limited.
Aggressive expansion is also not an option, not only because of its ethical implications and its violation of protocols established in regional economic communities (the African Union and the United Nations charter) but also because expansion is often not productive for the imperialist unless it represents the outflow of the forces of domestic structural transformation.
The third route of substantial external assistance from the West is also infeasible in today’s anti-globalization age. European foreign aid has reduced and the largest aid provider—the US—has scaled back its foreign aid. Moreover, many have argued that, under the multipolar world order, China is a competing hegemon that African countries may seek economic support from. Yet, the trade pattern with China remains characterized by raw material imports from Africa in exchange for manufactured goods. Infrastructure-led development through loans and capital from China for infrastructure projects has not worked to drive African development since the 2000s. In general, foreign aid tends to aid a nation’s structural transformation if the recipient nation’s political economy is developmental and if the domestic economy is driving such transformation, with the foreign aid serving as critical support to finance complementary infrastructure and importation of capital goods and machinery used in production.
Therefore, while Africa’s lower wages may attract Chinese foreign direct investment in processed goods, poor industrial policy among African countries has resulted in a situation where, after decades-long experiments, only a few Chinese manufacturers of low-quality garments and footwear are able to export from African countries. This leaves the fourth route—that of stronger intra-African cooperation (back to Nkrumah’s square one)—as the only realistic option for the next few decades.
THE ROUTE OF CONTINENTAL COOPERATION
It was in the context of Europe being the most war-ridden continent in the world that proposals for continental confederation emerged, first in 1623. About 300 years later, in order to avoid a repetition of another world war, the foundations for the European Union (EU) were laid in 1951 and 1957. Till today, various crises have stimulated further supranational integration within the EU, and the recent Russia–Ukraine War is enabling the European Commission to deepen supranational integration in the area of defence and security.
In contrast, Africa has not had as much pressure to create strong states, developmental states and forge stronger supranational institutions due to the lack of substantive external threats. However, when such pressures and threats emerge (particularly war, famine or geopolitical competition), African integrative efforts have tended to intensify. This has been labelled ‘crisis pan-Africanism’.
To be clear, crises are not the only drivers for the emergence of intergovernmental organisations and regional cooperation in Africa. Additionally, to persist or to be effective, there must be underlying functional drivers and a regional hegemon(s) willing to underwrite the effectiveness of the institution. For example, while the foundation for the Southern Africa Development Community was laid by the Southern African Development Co-ordination Conference to balance against apartheid South Africa’s regional influence, the Southern African Customs Union became the best performing regional economic bloc in Africa partly because of South Africa’s hegemonic role, which is undergirded by its position as the largest industrial and financial power within the bloc. The Organization for the Development of the Senegal River (Organisation pour la Mise en Valeur du Fleuve Senegal) between Senegal, Mali, Mauritania and Guinea outperforms the Inter-State Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel partly because, as the primary economic engine for the subregion, Senegal effectively plays the role of a ‘benevolent hegemon’.
The EU was able to emerge, last and perform effectively partly due to the collaboration between the two Western European hegemons (France and Germany). In Latin America, the creation of the trading bloc, MERCOSUR, in 1991 and its subsequent success relied on cooperation between the largest economies of the bloc (Argentina and Brazil), despite not previously having high levels of intra-regional trade and interdependence. Similarly, the formation of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 1967 relied on the cooperation of the two regional powers, Indonesia and Vietnam.
The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) is the most apparent means by which Africa might build greater power to survive the forces of exploitative multipolarity and anti-globalization over the next few decades. In addition to improving the continent’s position within the global economic order, a sturdy AfCFTA would improve Africa’s resilience to external shocks. However, despite the obvious benefits that the AfCFTA could bring, its impact five years later has been marginal because of substantial logistical, infrastructural and political challenges that have not been overcome but that many advocates of ‘developmental integration’ foresaw—although there are real challenges in implementing such an integration strategy. Progress within the AfCFTA needs, at the minimum, greater collaboration between South Africa and Nigeria. This is particularly pertinent at a time when South Africa’s aid from the US has been cut, in disapproval of its land redistribution policy and in retaliation to its genocide case at the International Court of Justice against Israel. Its eligibility for the US African Growth and Opportunities Act—which allows it to export certain products duty-free to the US—may also be under threat.
The second component of African cooperation is that, for the large African countries, their bargaining power relative to Chinese private capital is often underestimated. While the one-party dominant governments of Ethiopia and Tanzania have been better able to acknowledge their bargaining power and insist on greater local content requirements from Chinese private direct investment, governments of competitive democracies like Nigeria and Kenya make weaker impositions. If large African countries can strengthen their domestic manufacturing bases by leveraging their bargaining power relative to Chinese manufacturing investors, they could increase the share of manufacturing in intra-African export trade and thereby improve the economic viability of intra-African trade within the AfCFTA.
The shifting world order—marked by Western protectionism, erratic foreign aid and multipolar economic competition—has once again exposed the continent’s vulnerabilities. The only viable path forward for Africa is through stronger continental cooperation. The AfCFTA remains the most promising initiative to increase intra-African trade, reduce dependency on foreign markets and enhance Africa’s bargaining power in global affairs. Yet, its success hinges on the commitment of key regional players—most notably South Africa and Nigeria—to drive implementation, resolve logistical bottlenecks and harmonize trade policies.
Beyond trade, Africa’s large economies must recognize their bargaining power when engaging with foreign investors, particularly China. By enforcing stronger local content policies and fostering industrial development, African nations can make some progress in strengthening their economic resilience. Ultimately, Africa’s position in the global hierarchy will not change unless its leaders abandon the outdated model of fragmented economic development. A unified and resilient Africa—one that prioritizes regional collaboration—can transform external threats into catalysts for growth⎈
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