Ondo 2024 Governorship Election and the Hallmarks of a Recessive Democracy

The low participation of electorates in the Ondo State election points to a serious problem of voter apathy and raises the question of the status and future of Nigeria’s evolving democracy.

Nigeria’s second and final off-cycle governorship election in 2024 was concluded on Sunday, 17 November, with the return of the incumbent governor, Lucky Aiyedatiwa as the winner of the election. Aiyedatiwa, of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) had assumed the governorship office a year ago when, as deputy governor, he was next in line following the death of his boss and predecessor, Governor Rotimi Akeredolu. That elevation to the top job put paid to the permutations and planning of the APC primary, especially since the deputy governor’s stature as the next in line was far from certain. In fact, he was the subject of an impeachment proceeding that required intervention from President Bola Tinubu. But, in the end, the state’s party structure fell in line after his assumption of the top job and his march to victory was relatively processional in the end.

The race had devolved into a contest between two former deputy governors. Agboola Ajayi, the nominee of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), had been Akeredolu’s deputy during his first term (2016 – 2020) but had fallen out with him and later contested against his boss in 2020 on the platform of Zenith Labour Party. Ajayi had been a former PDP politician, elected as local government chairman in 2004 and to the federal House of Representatives in 2007 for one term, and his defection ahead of the 2016 elections had helped shore up necessary support for Akeredolu, who was running for a first term aiming to beat the choice of an incumbent PDP government. After falling out with Akeredolu in 2020, Agboola returned to PDP before moving again to contest the governorship. Despite a strong background in state politics, Agboola’s second bid for the state’s top job has failed again.

As with all elections, several factors were key in determining the outcome of the Ondo State contest and the result. In the aftermath of a contentious and divisive Edo governorship election earlier in September, there is the temptation to appreciate the relative smoothness with which Ondo was conducted and the lack of ‘dramatic’ incidents. But the election appears to have cemented certain elements of Nigeria’s democratic process—for better or worse...