Every Nigerian state is divided into local government areas (LGAs) and three senatorial zones. For the most part, a state-wide office is usually alternated across these zones for equity and representation. In the quarter century since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, Edo Central senatorial zone had only held the governorship for an 18-month period. Among the four governors of the state were two two-term governors from Edo South and another two-term governor from Edo North who came to office after a court ruling halted the governor from Edo Central. This campaign for equality led APC and PDP to nominate indigenes from Edo Central. It was a challenge for LP’s Akpata who, if elected, would have been the third of five governors from Edo South.  

As the elections drew closer, the game to maximize turnout and strongholds in the 18 LGAs became the aim. In 2020, Obaseki stormed to re-election by winning Edo Central and Edo South—sweeping all LGAs in those zones—while being handily beaten in Edo North, a zone that Oshiomhole has influence in and even represents in the senate. Edo South’s strong population, averaging 47 per cent of the total votes cast, was also seen as a likely route to achieving victory. But, despite similarly winning both Edo South and Edo Central, albeit narrowly, Ighodalo failed to replicate Obaseki’s margins and lost. This can be attributed to three main factors.  

First, voter turnout was disproportionately in favour of the zones that Okpebholo needed. Edo North, APC’s stronghold, led the way with a 33-per-cent voter turnout. Next was Edo Central, where Okpebholo currently serves as senator, with 25 per cent, while PDP’s base in Edo South only recorded a measly 17 per cent. These affected the numbers that Okpebholo needed to turn up the voter count.

Second, voter apathy was rife, and people simply didn’t turn out to vote. When the rate for collected permanent voters’ cards (PVCs) was released by INEC, the combined total for Edo Central (375,352) and Edo North (629,396) was less than Edo South (1,244,233), which reinforced Edo South’s status as the prized jewel. Yet Edo South posted the lowest percentage of collected PVCs with 82 per cent, compared to 87 per cent in Central and 94 per cent in North. This showed lower levels of interest in Edo South, which could be tied to the expected zoning principle favouring Edo Central. It also reflected in the percentage of registered voters that were accredited. While Edo North had 34 per cent, and Edo Central had 30 per cent, Edo South could only record 18 per cent. This meant that the actual determinants of the results would be in Edo North and Central, which had only last year returned APC senators in Oshiomhole and Okpebholo respectively.  

Third, the Edo North factor was more than just simply having better voter turnout—it was about having better APC turnout period. If we compare the total votes in 2020 and 2024 across zones, we’ll see that while Central gained 11,155 votes, and South only lost 236 votes, the North actually lost 19,073 votes. Yet the major point that appears to have been reinforced is that APC voters came out where PDP didn’t. In 2020, Obaseki’s swing in Edo South was 81,504 votes—which would have been enough to swing the election for Ighodalo even if with his poor showing in Edo North. But it really goes beyond a single zone; Okpebholo outperformed his party’s performance in 2020 in all zones, while Ighodalo could not replicate Obaseki’s numbers.  

A common caveat was the outsized influence of vote buying in the election. It was widely reported by civil society observers and was almost expected in the wake of a difficult socio-economic situation. There were also clear limitations by INEC in the wake of logistics challenges, moving voting materials state-wide, and even managing the rain that no doubt affected morale and voter participation. These issues definitely played a role in the election and the expected influence of federal might would have made such arrangements easier. These issues make it difficult to effectively analyse such data, but don’t negate the utility in looking at the numbers and the context behind them.