Between Nigeria’s Postponed Elections and Nigeria’s Electoral Outcomes

In the past three electoral cycles, election postponement has been the norm in Nigeria not the exception. While President Buhari might not have influenced delaying the 2019 elections, the consequences of the delay may potentially be to his advantage.

Written by Abdulrasheed Isah

Feb 18, 2019

A voter getting accredited at the Area 1 FCT Abuja polling unit. Nigeria, 2015.U.S. EMBASSY NIGERIA/IDIKA ONYUKWU

In March 2015, when Muhammadu Buhari defeated the then-incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan, electoral observers worldwide celebrated Nigeria’s general elections for being not only peaceful but also free, fair and credible. The elections also bolstered the image of the Nigeria’s embattled electoral agency, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), gaining widespread acclaim as evidence of Nigeria’s maturing democracy—a major break from the institution’s riddled history of electoral malpractices in Nigeria. Yet INEC appears to have tainted its reputation on Saturday when, five hours before polls opened, it postponed the highly-anticipated general elections by a week. The presidential and national assembly elections have also been rescheduled from February 16 to February 23, 2019. There are now fresh concerns over INEC’s ability to consolidate its goodwill and smoothly conduct the 2019 elections.

Currently, President Buhari is competing in a tight race with a former Vice President and political ally, Atiku Abubakar. In 2015, Buhari won the Nigerian presidency based on promises to tackle Boko Haram insurgency, fight corruption, create jobs, and revive the economy. While progress has been made in ‘technically defeating’ Boko Haram insurgents, the terror group still wreaks havoc in some parts of northeast Nigeria. Other frightening security challenges such as Fulani-farmers conflicts, widespread kidnappings and Biafra secessionist agitations have worsened since 2015. Moreover, despite Buhari’s fierce anticorruption efforts, Nigeria maintains an average score of 27 out of 100 in Transparency International’s Corruption perception Index. Last year, the country became the world’s poverty capital, with a staggering 23 per cent unemployment rate. As a result, the 2019 elections have been touted as a referendum on Buhari’s governance, just as four years ago it was for Goodluck Jonathan.

PDP front-runner, Atiku, is promising to turn things around through market-oriented reforms, such as the privatization of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, and an ambitious anti-corruption strategy that aims to strengthen the autonomy of anti-corruption agencies and tackle money launderings. However, all these promises seem questionable as he has yet to resolve his corruption allegations. 70 other presidential candidates are also vying to woo Nigeria’s 84 million registered voters, although such contestants are unlikely to make significant gains in the polls.

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About the Author

Abdulrasheed Isah

is a DAAD Scholar pursuing a doctorate at the Center for Development Research (ZEF) at University of Bonn, Germany. As a Commonwealth Scholar, he obtained an MSc Development Economics at SOAS University of London, United Kingdom.

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Between Nigeria’s Postponed Elections and Nigeria’s Electoral Outcomes