The Outlook for Buhari's Second Term

Having secured 55.6 per cent of the popular vote in the recent elections, Buhari surprised many by building on his majority of 53.96 per cent at the 2015 elections. He emerged victorious despite facing a concerted challenge from a resurgent PDP opposition led by former vice president, Atiku Abubakar. But beneath this headline, the declining turnout rate of 35.6 per cent reflects a weakening social contract between the people and the country’s ruling system. Voters appeared far less enthusiastic about Buhari’s leadership and his campaign’s ‘Next Level’ mantra than they were in 2015 but were equally wary of Atiku and his PDP associates who many perceived as self-serving and prone to cronyism. Government and Nigeria’s political class as a whole face an uphill battle in strengthening the social contract and demonstrating how they can contribute to development and the improvement of livelihoods.

The APC’s last four years in power were characterized by frequent political clashes between the legislative and executive arms of government, which saw delays in passing essential legislation including the budget. With the APC winning most seats in the Senate and National Assembly, we can expect initial harmony, but this is likely to be short-lived, as lawmakers and the APC at large remain deeply divided by personal interests and factional politics. The cracks are likely to emerge around upcoming cabinet appointments and can be expected to widen towards the end of the tenure as various caucuses jostle for the presidential race in 2023. Political developments in the next few years are expected to be influenced in particular by the expectation that 2023 will see a south-westerner returned to the executive office.

The relationship between the executive and judicial arms of government is also set to remain fraught, with the continuation of the anti-corruption crusade targeting high-profile judges. The trial of the Chief Justice of Nigeria, Walter Onnoghen, is a litmus test of the viability of this part of the anti-corruption fight, as Onnoghen is the most senior member of the judiciary ever to face prosecution in what, nevertheless, remains a relatively politicized case. Tied to this is an expectation of renewed vigour in the EFCC’s investigation and prosecution of high-profile politicians. But if this fails to look beyond the opposition’s ranks in its sanctioning, then the Buhari administration will fall short of expectations in taking a principled approach to rooting out corruption in the system.

It is unlikely that the president will take six months to form a cabinet as he did in 2015, and expectations are high that he will announce the new government within weeks of being sworn in for a second term in May. President Buhari may retain a handful of current cabinet ministers that he believes have been effective, signalling continuity in policy and direction that will be welcomed in some business quarters.