Understanding Russia and the New Scramble for Africa

Leaders like Nigeria’s Olusegun Obasanjo, South Africa’s Thabo Mbeki and Togo’s Gnassingbé Eyadema came together to remodel the so-called ‘dictators club’ that the earlier, 1999 Sirte Declaration had condemned. These leaders identified African unity, ‘real unity that serves the people first’, as the premise from which to accelerate development in Africa. While this new geo-political entity took form, the eyes of the world re-aligned to Africa, and the ‘scramble for Africa’ began for a second time.

Russia’s interest in Africa is not new—the Cold-War had seen significant Soviet presence on the African continent. Rather, the Kremlin’s interest has been re-ignited by the clear opportunity to establish influence in a region that is increasingly becoming vulnerable to a renewed global scramble for its resources. While it is inaccurate to say that Russia has never shown any interest in Africa before, the re-emergent potential of one united African voice, epitomized by the formation of Africa Continental Free Trade Area—the largest free trade area since the World Trade Organisation—in 2019, certainly alerted Russia and other global players to the need to either consolidate or re-establish their influence on the continent. While the UK’s then-prime minister, Theresa May’s ‘casual’ three-state tour of the continent in 2019 was a calculated move towards consolidation, Vladimir Putin’s Sochi Summit appeared to be a desperate attempt at re-establishment.

Indeed, with a seemingly clear direction for comprehensive development through its several frameworks for integration, such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the continental passport, Africa inadvertently signalled the new scramble for a hand in its polities. In this scramble, Russia’s role can best be described as ambivalent. On the one hand, Russia has the potential to promote favourable intra-continental relations. On the other hand, Russia could push Africa into a failure to make good on the promises leaders at Lomé 2000 looked so eager to deliver on. Defining which scenario is more likely, requires understanding this new scramble for Africa from the lens of the AU and its relationship with Russia.