APC and the Dilemmas of a Ruling Party

Additionally, the 2023 election could tell us the extent to which Nigeria has a sustainable democracy, at least theoretically. In 2015, the incumbent All Progressives Congress took over the presidency from the People’s Democratic Party, the ruling party since 1999. For Nigeria to have a solidified democracy, political scientist Samuel Huntington would theorize, another party needs to take over from APC in 2023. Abstract as the ‘two-turnover test’ may sound against the realpolitik of APC, essays by authors in this issue make it worthwhile to engage with Huntington’s proposal. PDP, the only practical alternative, many believe, has failed to assert itself as a viable opposition party. The future or failure of APC, it would seem then, lies with the party itself. The big question Nigerians have now is how APC intends to: manage Buhari’s departure while keeping his northern stronghold; prevent APC’s increasingly dubious internal structure from collapsing; and win the 2023 election—all at the same time. Compared to this, the two-turnover test seems like a walk in the park. This, however, is Nigeria—anything can happen.

Afolabi Adekaiyaoja launches the issue explaining the rise, evolution and challenges facing APC, and how these factors may shape APC’s performance in the 2023 election. According to Adekaiyaoja, ‘the biggest challenge to APC holding on to power is not the lumbering opposition, but internal divisions that threaten to destroy the party.’ He equally notes, that ‘Post Buhari, APC will definitely see fierce competition for control from its powerful bloc of governors, many of whom are preparing to contest the presidency in 2023 or seek solace in the senate as a result of being term-limited.’