The Aftermath of Nigeria’s Closest Election in the Fourth Republic

Nigeria’s 2023 general elections were the most tightly contested since the beginning of the fourth republic. In fact, for the first time since 1999, there were predictions that the election may go on to a run off. Several reasons gave rise to its unpredictability, chief of which was the candidacy of Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) and, to a lesser degree, that of Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP). Ultimately, on 1 March 2023, Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) was declared the election winner and sworn in on 29 May 2023 as Nigeria’s 16th head of state. Following the 18 March gubernatorial elections, APC now controls 20 states since 29 May, while the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) follows with thirteen, and LP, All Progressive Grand Alliance and NNPP with one each.

While a long-time politician, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, was announced the winner of the presidential election, some things seem to have changed this past electoral season, which indicates the possibility that Nigeria’s democracy may be growing. These changes can be categorized into the growing multiparty ethos, particularly in the South East, and the rise of a powerful new political bloc steeped in dynamism.