COVID-19 and the New Climate Change Imperative

Alongside the detrimental effect of COVID-19 on public health, the world is experiencing an economic crisis triggered by the disruption of both supply and demand chains, lockdowns, social distancing rules, border closures and travel restrictions, as well as stay-home advisories. The pandemic has brought unprecedented shock, exposing the fragility of our global society. According to the Centre for Risk at the University of Cambridge, in a worst-case scenario, the COVID-19 pandemic could cost the global economy as much as $82 trillion over five years. In the best-case scenario, which is a speedy recovery, the potential loss could be kept at about $3.3 trillion.

There are still many unknowns about the COVID-19 pandemic, but many have argued its impact on African economies will be severe. According to the World Bank, sub-Saharan Africa could experience its first recession in 25 years, and the pandemic could cost the region between $37 billion and $79 billion in output losses in 2020. The bank’s analysis further estimates that sub-Saharan Africa’s economy could contract by as much as 2.4 per cent in 2019 and between 2.1 and 5.1 per cent in 2020, depending on how effectively the pandemic’s effects will be mitigated. Similarly, the International Monetary Fund has drastically revised its October 2019 economic growth forecasts for sub-Saharan Africa from 5.2 per cent down to -1.6 per cent. The outlook for Nigeria and South Africa, the region’s largest economies, at -3.4 and -5.8 per cent respectively, is even more pessimistic.