The Inevitability of Bola Ahmed Tinubu

Editor’s note: This essay is available in our print issue, The Road to 2023. Buy the issue here.

In the different eras of democratic rule (1960-1966 and 1979-1983) before the current uninterrupted period, Nigeria’s leaders have sought power by appealing to followers to support their ambitions. However, their chances of success have historically been rooted in their ability to place their ambitions within the context of the demands of that moment in Nigerian history. The different stages of Nigeria’s democratic evolution have shown the strengths, and occasional limitations, of some of the country’s most storied political actors. But, like the authenticity that comes with tracing the source of a hadith to the prophet, tracing one’s political lineage to formidable forebears is a stamp of legitimacy.

The 2023 presidential election comes with the opportunity for APC’s presidential nominee, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, to lay claim to a throne that has eluded many on the political lineage he seeks to follow. It comes with a chance to succeed where political luminaries, such as Obafemi Awolowo and M. K .O. Abiola, failed. It also offers Tinubu the chance to define this stage of Nigeria’s political journey by becoming one of the handful of Nigerians to lead the country.

Convincing Nigerians to ignore the controversies of his past, his wealth and his choice of running mate will be the crowning achievement of Tinubu’s career. A potential victory will also serve as a marker when we look back to discuss this stage in the country’s political evolution.

Political campaigns often provide candidates a chance to rewrite their narratives, but Tinubu’s sustained involvement in politics means that many Nigerians have already made up their mind about who he is and what they believe he stands for. There is no argument over the more incontrovertible facts, such as his election to the Nigerian Senate during the short lived Third Republic (1992-1993) and then as governor of Lagos State (1999-2007) in between being a member of the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO). However, opinions begin to diverge when evaluating his legacy in politics after serving two terms as governor.

For those to whom Tinubu is truly ‘Jagaban’, a Hausa phrase that means ‘take us forward’ and a title conferred by the Emir of Borgu, he earned the title in 2006 through his ability to provide purposeful and progressive leadership. This includes his tenure as governor of Lagos State, during which, his supporters claim, he increased the state’s revenue; and after which, they also argue, he bequeathed competent and productive successors. Asiwaju Oladimeji, a political analyst and APC member, believes, for instance, that Tinubu ‘deserves kudos for spotting political talent’. There is also the sagacity in his firm stand against the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) during the 2003 election—at a time when his fellow governors lost re-election bids and his party, the Alliance for Democracy (AD)’s control of the South West was whittled to just Lagos...