In 2006, Nigeria conducted a census. The results put the country’s population at 140 million people, with Kano being the most populous state, followed by Lagos. These results were controversial, with the South alleging that the figures had been inflated to favour the North. There was much criticism of the census as being marred by political interference.
This was history repeating itself, as
counting Nigerians has always been tricky. This history has been marked by irregularities from the count at household levels, to tallies at the agency level, but despite the issues with the 2006 exercise, the results were maintained and published by the National Population Commission(NPC) and it remains the last census the country has carried out.
The
United Nations recommends that a population census should be conducted at least every decade. It has been 16 years since the last census. Nigeria’s population, as expected, has changed over the years. The population figures in play since our last census have been estimates provided by Worldometer. Currently, Nigeria’s population is estimated to be around 200 million. It is an uncertain number, as 16 years is a long time, and the various trends that affect population growth can go either undetected or measured inaccurately. Why does this matter?
While censuses determine key factors that shape the electoral process, the data is to guide governments in planning for growth and development. It is important not just for the public sector, because private sector organisations need census data as key insights for understanding the market(s) they serve or want to serve.
PLANNING WITH AND FOR PEOPLE
Demographic data obtained from a census is the bedrock of planning for national development. Figures on population, spatial distribution, age, sex, and other information captured affect the policies formulated across sectors and systems. You cannot adequately plan without understanding who you are planning for. At a time when restructuring has become part of the national discourse, the census will determine to a large extent what productivity, growth, and development could mean in the coming years.
The National Population Policy states that based on the 3.2 per cent growth rate from the 2006 census, Nigeria will have to double infrastructure, food production, education, water supply, housing, energy, healthcare and other services to meet up with projected population growth. Ideally, economic growth and the availability of social services should exceed population growth if we are to record any improvement in the standard of living.
The utility of a census is in the demographic breakdown, the estimated and projected growth rates, and the numbering of households. The figures influence how budgets are made; federal government allocations to state and local governments depend on this data.
PEOPLE MAKE GOVERNMENTS
Results from a census also determine representation in government. While Nigeria has since changed in terms of its political and administrative structure, census figures still remain important in defining representation at different levels of government. The 1952/53 census saw the allocation of parliamentary seats for Nigeria’s newly independent government; the Northern region got 174 seats (55.4 per cent of the population), the Eastern region 76 seats (23.7 per cent) and the Western region 65 seats (20.9 per cent).
The legislature is constituted of local government councillors, state house of assembly members, members of the House of Representatives, and finally, state senators. While Nigeria’s 109 Senate seats are spread equally across states—three per state and without recourse to size or population, the House of Representatives differs. The House has 360 federal representatives, representing a constituency each. Delimitation of these federal constituencies is determined by the population of the state, and that is why the number of constituencies vary across states. Kano and Lagos States have the most significant numbers, with 24 federal constituencies represented by 24 members. Bayelsa, Nigeria’s least populated state, has five.
Nigeria’s constituencies are delimited based on the population size of an area; this way, these constituencies represent the population as equally as is practicable, following constitutional provisions. There have been criticisms levelled against the country’s electoral body in regard to its compliance with these provisions, including that non-compliance has created underrepresentation in some areas.
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