Tinubu’s Regional Turn

Established in 1975, ECOWAS comprises 15 member countries with the principal objective of promoting economic integration in West Africa across numerous fields. This regional bloc is a potent force, providing a platform for the facilitation of free movement, peace maintenance, and fostering economic collaboration among its members.

Tinubu’s ascension to the helm of ECOWAS underscores Nigeria’s substantial weight within the bloc. As Africa’s most populous country and largest economy, Nigeria has long been an influential player in West Africa. Tinubu’s chairmanship could further deepen this influence, with potential ramifications for regional power dynamics.

Tinubu’s track record, especially his focus on enhancing security measures, suggests that he could champion a stronger and more coordinated approach to addressing the region’s security challenges. The rise in militant extremism and piracy necessitates a collaborative approach, which Tinubu might drive during his tenure.

As a powerful force in West Africa, ECOWAS plays a crucial role in facilitating the free movement of people, goods and capital, maintaining regional peace, and driving economic integration. The ECOWAS chairmanship is administered by one of the member countries’ heads of state or government, who is selected on an annual rotation for a one-year term.

One of ECOWAS’s core objectives is to facilitate the unhindered movement of people, goods, and capital across member states. This seamless integration forms a cornerstone of the community, intending to create a region of inclusive growth.

ECOWAS plays a critical role in maintaining regional peace and stability, stepping in to mediate during political crises and conflict situations. Its mission is to build a peaceful region where democracy and the rule of law are upheld. The group also drives economic integration, promoting free trade among member states, coordinating agricultural policies, and establishing a common external tariff, among other measures. This approach is designed to encourage collaboration and synergy, fostering a thriving economic environment.

The election of a new chairperson, such as the recent election of Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu, can significantly impact the bloc’s functioning and relationships. The chairperson’s national priorities, leadership style and diplomatic acumen can influence the bloc’s approach toward regional issues, its engagements with external actors, and the dynamics between member states.

A key element of Tinubu’s likely ECOWAS agenda is the prioritization of security. In his acceptance speech, he declared: ‘On peace and security, the threat has reached an alarming level, and needs urgent actions in addressing the challenges.’ He noted that, ‘Indeed, without a peaceful environment, progress and development in the region will continue to remain elusive. In this regard, we must remain committed to the utilization of all regional frameworks at our disposal to address the menace of insecurity.’ The rapidly intensifying security threat in the Sahel is being underscored by a roughly 70 per cent surge in violent events associated with militant Islamist groups, leaping from 1,180 incidents in 2020 to 2,005 in 2021. With a growing trend of militant extremism and piracy across West Africa, a collective, unified security strategy could be at the forefront of Tinubu’s focus.

Tinubu could bolster ECOWAS security forces’ interoperability and joint response capabilities, leaning on a regional approach to tackle shared threats. For instance, the ripple effects of Boko Haram’s insurgency in the North East primarily affect Nigeria, but also extend to neighbouring countries like Cameroon, Chad, and Niger in the Lake Chad Basin region. These nations, grappling with their own socio-political challenges, are now facing heightened security threats and severe humanitarian consequences, such as displaced populations and disruption to trade. The central Sahel saw a record surge in forced displacement in 2022, with violence, climate change, and economic challenges pushing over 2.9 million people from Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger into refugee or internally displaced status. The transnational nature of this crisis emphasizes the need for a coordinated and robust multinational response. From intelligence sharing to coordinated interventions, one may expect a more unified ECOWAS under Tinubu’s chairmanship. Tinubu noted that the security architecture of ECOWAS covers a wide range of areas including preventive diplomacy. According to him: