Geopolitical Projections in West Africa and the Wider Continent

The formation of the AES is triggering a new consciousness for the average citizen in French-speaking African countries, and this is causing external powers and interests to review their positions in the Sahel region. France’s Operation Barkhane (a French-led counterterrorism campaign launched in 2014 targeting extremist insurgents throughout the Sahel region of West Africa) is considered a failure by critical analysts and reporters, no different from the US’s just concluded Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan. Both operations are considered parts of the wider war on terrorism and both France and the US ended operations without achieving stated objectives. In the case of France, it is argued that since the start of Operation Barkhane in August 2014, the security condition in the Sahel has worsened. This is especially true considering that civilians had been attacked in error by French forces in 2021, and also considering the tacit support French forces gave to the Movement for the National Liberation of Azawad—an AlQaeda-affiliated separatist group that occupied the Kidal region of Northern Mali from 2013 until 2023 when the Goita-led junta recaptured the region. The point here is that a handful of West African countries made a pioneering move to cooperate on security matters outside the purview of Euro-Atlantic influence.

Observing the internal conditions of the member states of the AES, it is clear that solutions to development challenges are at the forefront of relations and governance plans. The AES is also enjoying much popular support from citizens and government officials, with reports showing that the prime ministers of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso affirm commitment to the alliance. The three prime ministers also attended a rally in Niamey, Niger in December 2023 that saw thousands celebrating the full withdrawal of French troops from Niger. Prime Minister Chougel Maiga of Mali was quoted by Reuters as saying ‘And so AES was born. If you notice, it all started with safety issues. Today, collaboration between our three armies has reached an extremely high level of integration. And that scares some people.’ Burkina Faso’s Appollinaire Joachim Kyelem de Tambela said, ‘From now on, we say, whether you’re from Mali, Niger or Burkina, we have the same destiny. We’re going in together.’ These countries, since their respective coups occurred, have exposed a sort of rift in international relations especially around the narrative of democracy being the ‘correct’ and ‘just’ way a state be governed.

In a further expression of geopolitical autonomy, Burkina Faso strengthened ties with Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba. This is significant because the South American countries in this context are rivals of the United States especially as they were targeted by Washington during Washington’s war against communism around the time of the Cold War in 1958, 1982, and 1961 respectively. Niger, on the other hand, moved to nationalize its water sector, ending a 22-year-old contract with French Veolia Group, which provided access to drinking water for most of Niger’s population. Mali focused on bolstering economic, diplomatic and military ties with Russia, following the breakdown of relations with France. These are developments that further signal the intent of the alliance to build resilience individually and as a collective. At the same time, it is critical to note that the geopolitical interests of the US and France in the region are being threatened. There is also the perspective of the West’s bluff being called out, in the sense that the benefits of economic cooperation with the West do not outweigh the gains of direct African multilateral cooperation. Considering the value of natural resources at stake, it is refreshing to witness a new era and style of partnership between African countries, especially without the input of foreign powers and interests.