Nigeria and Climate Change

As temperature influences natural forces (winds, ocean currents, precipitation patterns, etc.), global warming has led to climate change. Scientific literature has repeatedly suggested that climate change will result in more frequent extreme weather events (floods, droughts, heat waves, etc.), melting of polar ice caps and changes in crop yields and productivity, some of which are already evident today, and all of which will disrupt the current socioeconomic order. The fossil fuels that have spurred global economic growth for centuries now threaten to be its inhibitor.

Increasing mainstream acceptance of climate change and its devastating consequences, should unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions continue, has galvanised political action. Most recently, there has been a global treaty—the Paris Agreement—to limit temperature rise to “well below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels” by the end of the century. A debate on the path to Paris and the feasibility/usefulness of the agreement itself has since ensued. It is now widely accepted that mitigation and adaptation measures are necessary to address climate change effects.

Adaptation is the adjustment of the natural and built environment, and human behaviour to reduce their vulnerability to climate change impacts e.g. flood defences against sea level rise, reduced meat consumption to curb agricultural emissions. Mitigation is the prevention of further climate change by reducing the sources or enhancing the sinks of greenhouse gas emissions e.g. switching from using fossil fuels to renewable energy; this process is often referred to as decarbonization.

To achieve the Paris accord target, net emissions must fall to zero (i.e. complete decarbonization) by 2070; this requires an unprecedented transition of the global energy system so as to decouple economic growth and rising GHG emissions from fossil fuel use. Studies have consistently concluded that the least-cost pathway to achieving this requires the extensive deployment of a range of clean energy technologies including renewable energy (solar, wind, nuclear and hydro power), energy storage (large-scale batteries) and carbon capture and storage (CCS)[1]; CCS is a technology that prevents emissions from fossil fuel combustion from being released to the atmosphere by capturing them in a fluid and storing them in geological formations underground. Improved energy efficiency across all sectors of the economy, reduced energy demand growth and divestment from fossil fuels are also critical. Whilst these decarbonization measures can, and are being pursued, at some cost, in industrialised economies, they will prove difficult in emerging economies—the centres of future population and economic growth—where near-term industrialization objectives will compete with long-term mitigation strategies for investment.

Nigeria is projected to contribute 10 per cent of the 2.2 billion increase in global population expected by 2050. [2] Nigeria’s burgeoning population and tropical climate—where temperature is expected to increase faster than the global average—leave its local ecosystems vulnerable to climate change. These ecosystems provide direct and indirect services to the population, including nutrient cycling to maintain the fertility of soils, waste decomposition, and pest and disease control. The dependence on oil rents for 90 per cent of export revenues also leave the economy vulnerable to climate policies that seek to wean the world off fossil fuels. The policies that the government implements in the coming years will determine Nigeria’s competitiveness in an increasingly carbon-constrained world.

The most recent estimates show that Nigeria is responsible for 490 metric tonnes of GHG emissions (CO2 equivalent) annually, just over 1 per cent of global production. 39 per cent of this arises from land-use change and forestry; 33 per cent from energy production (oil and gas extraction, and the power sector); 14 per cent from waste (incineration of municipal waste); 13 per cent from agriculture; and 2 per cent from industry. As a party to the Paris Agreement, Nigeria has committed to reducing its GHG emissions by 20 per cent relative to a business-as-usual scenario of economic and emissions growth by 2030, and to pursuing a 45 per cent reduction if sufficient international support is received. [3] It intends to achieve this by ending gas flaring (burning of excess gas from oil and gas production), increasing the use of renewable energy, implementing climate-smart agriculture and championing reforestation efforts.

Whilst these are positive objectives, there is little evidence to suggest that they are being pursued with enough momentum to meet these targets. Encouraging the intensification of agriculture, increased industrialization and rising oil production, instead, appear to be the focus of government efforts. Each of these sectors—agriculture, industry and energy—is vulnerable to climate change and/or climate policy, so it is important to assess how global trends in each are likely to manifest locally and how the emerging challenges can be mitigated against in the long-term.