The Economic Uncertainties of the AfCFTA Amidst Regional Conflict

The AfCFTA’s potential to transform intra-African trade risks being undermined by the volatility created by instability in the Sahel and Great Lakes regions.

Written by Eberechukwu Ezike

May 22, 2025

Illustration by Kingsley Chibueze / THE REPUBLIC.

In a market in Bamako, Mali, one is likely to find a textile trader anxiously awaiting a fabric shipment from neighbouring Côte d’Ivoire. Days turn into weeks, and his goods remain stuck at a checkpoint controlled by armed groups demanding hefty bribes. With each passing day, his profits shrink, forcing him to raise prices. As a result, customers turn to cheaper alternatives, and his main source of livelihood hangs in the balance. The trader’s struggle is not unique. Across Africa, insecurity is disrupting trade routes, deterring investments and undermining the promise of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Established in 2018, the AfCFTA is the largest free-trade area by number of member states, encompassing 1.3 billion people across the world’s second-largest continent. The AfCFTA Agreement (the Agreement) aims to create a single market for goods and services across 54 member states by eliminating tariffs and non-tariff barriers, facilitating the free movement of business travellers and investments, and establishing a unified customs union to streamline trade on the continent.

However, persistent conflicts in regions like the Sahel and the Great Lakes pose a major threat to the AfCFTA’s success. Armed insurgencies, political instability, and cross-border criminal networks make trade costly and unpredictable, raising concerns about whether the AfCFTA can truly succeed under such conditions.

How much does conflict impact trade flows, regional value chains and market access? How do we measure the financial burden and economic toll of instability on businesses? The effectiveness of African-led security initiatives, such as the G5 Sahel Force and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) peacekeeping missions, in addressing these threats is put to the test. The central question remains: Can the AfCFTA function effectively amid ongoing conflicts or will insecurity continue to hinder Africa’s economic integration?

THE IMPACT OF INSECURITY ON TRADE FLOWS

Mali, in West Africa, is home to the historic trade cities of Timbuktu and Gao, where trading communities are important and markets attract nomadic and rural populations. As a landlocked country, it has two primary entry points for trade in the north and south. Kayes and Sikasso-Zégoua in the south provide access for imports from Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire. In the north, commodities enter Mali via three main routes: from Mauritania into Timbuktu; from Algeria (Tamanrasset) through Kidal; and from other northern African countries including Libya and Egypt through Niger and Ménaka.

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About the Author

Eberechukwu Ezike

is a corporate and commercial lawyer with G. Elias and the founder of AfCFTA Dialogues, where Ezike advocates for the effective implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

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